A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
